FPL 2018/19 : Gameweek 1 Match by Match Review

FPL_Locolord 2018-08-07 Fixture Analysis

Match : Man Utd Vs Leicester

Key Stats:

Leicester conceded on average 2 goals per game away from home.
Utd kept clean sheets in 12 of their 19 home games.
Utd only conceded on average 0.47 goals per game at home.

FDR Charts:

For game week one Man Utd rank 2nd for probability of scoring goals and 2nd for probability of keeping a clean sheet.

Prediction:

With the likely absence of Vardy and Maguire and the loss of Mahrez I expect Utd to come out on top by winning 2-0/2-1. Yes, United seem to have problems of their own but Jose whether loved or hated knows how to get results.

FPL Prediction:

Looking at last season stats expect Leicester to concede and Utd likely to keep a clean sheet.

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 Man Utd 2-0 Leicester
16-17 Man Utd 4-1 Leicester
15-16 Man Utd 1-1 Leicester

Match : Newcastle Vs Tottenham

Key Stats:

Newcastle at home only conceded 0.89 gls per game. Only MUN,LIV,MCY, TOT and CHE bettered this.
However, Newcastle only averaged just over a goal a game at home which ranked 17th in the league last season.
Spurs on the other hand scored 1.79 gls per game away and only failed to find the net 3 times

FDR Charts:

For game week one Spurs are ranked 10th for the probability of scoring but they are more likely to score than Newcastle who are ranked 13th.

Prediction:

Tottenham are likely to be without several of their first team regulars due to their World Cup campaigns but luckily for them all is not well at St James’ Park with off the pitch issues rumbling on. I would expect Tottenham to win 1-0/2-1.

FPL Prediction:

A Difficult game to predict with both teams boasting strong defensive records at home and away respectively. Low scoring game with Tottenham a possibility of keeping a clean sheet.

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 Newcastle 0-2 Tottenham
16-17 N/A
15-16 Newcastle 5-1 Tottenham

Match : Bournemouth Vs. Cardiff

Key Stats:

Bournemouth had a terrible defensive record at home last season. They only managed 3 clean sheets and on average conceded almost 1.6 gls per game the 2nd worst defensive record after Watford.
However, They only failed to score at home in 5 games (3 of which included LIV,MUN and CHE.
New boys Cardiff on the other hand were not high scorers away last season in the Championship only twice scoring more than 2 away from home but only blanking in 5 games.

FDR Charts:

For game week one Bournemouth are ranked 5th for attacking potential and 6th for defensive potential (clean sheets)


Prediction:

Surely Bournemouth can’t struggle as badly as they did last year, can they? Most people expect Cardiff to struggle this season and I am no different. 1-0 or 2-1 to Bournemouth looks the likely outcome.

FPL Prediction:

It looks certain that Bournemouth will score at least 1 in this game and could do so whilst keeping a clean sheet.

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 N/A
16-17 N/A
15-16 N/A

Match : Fulham Vs. Crystal Palace

Key Stats:

Fulham kept clean sheets in 10 of their final 15 games at home in the Championship.
After failing to score in their first 8 away games last season Crystal Palace got their act together and only blanked once in their last 11 games.
However Palace only managed 4 clean sheets in their 19 away games.
Fulham on the other hand only failed to find the back of the net in 2 of their 23 home games last season

FDR Charts:

For game week one Fulham are ranked 8th in the offensive ranking which shows they are likely to score. Crystal Palace are ranked 16th for offensive output but this is largely down to their poor start in last years campaign.


Prediction:

I expect both teams to score, which could likely be a low scoring draw or a 2-1 win to either team.

FPL Prediction:

Another difficult one to predict as Championship stats can be deceiving. Expect a low scoring match with maybe a goal separating either team.

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 N/A
16-17 N/A
15-16 N/A

Match : Huddersfield Vs. Chelsea

Key Stats:

Huddersfield failed to score in 8 games at home last season and only managed more than 1 goal on 3 occasions averaging 0.84 goals per game
Chelsea only failed to score 4 times away from home last season and averaged 1.58 goals per game scoring more than 3 goals on 5 occasions
Defensively Huddersfield managed 7 clean sheets at home but did concede 2 or more goals in 7 of their 18 home games
Chelsea kept 7 clean sheets away last season.

FDR Charts:

Chelsea are ranked 5th for gameweek one for their potential to score goals and are also ranked 4th in the defensive potential which means they are likely to keep a clean sheet


Prediction:

I expect Chelsea to win this game 2-0 or 3-0 with a slight possibility that Huddersfield can nick one.

FPL Prediction:

As Sarri is the new man in charge and formations seem to have changed at Chelsea they may be less defensive than seasons past but if Huddersfield do manage to score it wont be more than 1 goal and Chelsea will score at least 2 goals.

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 Huddersfield 1- 3 Chelsea
16-17 N/A
15-16 N/A

Match : Watford Vs. Brighton

Key Stats:

Watford started the season on fire last year, scoring 7 in their first 4 games, but became toothless as the season wore on.
They only managed to keep clean sheets in 5 of their 19 home games but averaged 1.42 goals per game at home
Brighton were woeful away last season failing to score in 12 of their 19 away matches
Brighton also managed to keep 5 clean sheets away from home

FDR Charts:

Surprisingly Watford rank third in attacking potential for gameweek one and tied 1st with Liverpool for the probability of keeping a clean sheet.


Prediction:

I expect Watford to win this game 2-0 or 3-0.

FPL Prediction:

It all depends on which Watford turn up on Saturday. On paper looking at the stats last year it seems to lead to a comfortable home win for Watford with a clean sheet highly likely due to Brighton struggling to find the net away from home last season scoring only 10 goals in 19 games.

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 Watford 0 – 0 Brighton
16-17 N/A
15-16 N/A

Match : Wolves Vs. Everton

Key Stats:

Wolves scored in 20 of their 23 games at home in the Championship last year averaging 1.8 gls per game.
They also managed 12 clean sheets in these games conceding 0.8 gls per game
Everton conversely blanked in 6 away games last season and only managed 3 clean sheets.
Everton averaged 0.84 gls per game away and conceded on average 1.89 gls per game

FDR Charts:

Wolves are ranked 3rd in attacking potential for gameweek 1 and ranked 7th for defensive difficulty.


Prediction:

I expect a tight game with Wolves winning 1-0 or Everton getting a 1-1 draw.

FPL Prediction:

As with all promoted teams it is difficulty to use last season’s championship data to predict how Wolves will fair in the Premier League. Going off last years stats I would expect Wolves to win by the ½ goals with a strong possibility of a clean sheet.

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 N/A
16-17 N/A
15-16 N/A

Match : Liverpool Vs. West Ham

Key Stats:

Liverpool have often been criticized for their defending but at home last season they recorded 12 clean sheets from their 19 games and only conceded 0.53 goals per game
Liverpool attacking stats at home show that they average 2.37 gls per game and blanked in 3 games.
Comparatively West Ham scored 1.26 gls/game away and blanked in 5 away games
However, away from home West Ham conceded 2.21 gls per game and only recorded 3 clean sheets

FDR Charts:

Liverpool are ranked 1st in the attacking potential charts and 2nd in the defensive charts so goals and a clean sheet are highly likely.


Prediction:

I expect a comfortable win for Liverpool maybe 3-0. West Ham have bought well in the summer transfer window but it may take time for their new signings to gel. With Arnautovic on the pitch he can get a goal from nothing but Liverpool will be difficult to breakdown. As you can see from the head to head records below West Ham have scored in each of their last 3 visits to Anfield.

FPL Prediction:

Looking at last years stats we can expect goals from Liverpool making Liverpool’s attacking trio of Salah, Mane and Firmino attractive. Defensively at home Liverpool are solid and the additions of Alisson and Fabinho can only improve this and a clean sheet is likely

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 Liverpool 4-1 West Ham
16-17 Liverpool 2-2 West Ham
15-16 Liverpool 0-3 West Ham

Match : Southampton Vs. Burnley

Key Stats:

Burnley failed to score in 7 of their away games last season and scored on average just over a goal a game.
Burnley registered 5 clean sheets away last season and only conceded on average just over a goal a game in their away matches
On the other hand Southampton were poor defensively last season only registering 3 clean sheets at home (joint worse in the league) and conceded just 1.37 goals per game
Likewise as an attacking unit Southampton were poor last year failing to score in 7 of their 19 games whilst scoring 0.8 goals per game

FDR Charts:

Both teams are on the lower echelons of the FDR charts for both scoring and defensive potential. Expect a low scoring game.


Prediction:

I think there will be less than 3.5 gls in this match with Burnley slightly favorites to register the win. It could be a bore 0-0/1-1 draw or a 2-1 win to either side but I don’t expect either team to win by more than a single goal.

FPL Prediction:

I don’t think any attacking player will get you a double digit haul in this match and I expect clean sheets will be more likely making defensive players from either side the more attractive options.

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 Southampton 0-1 Burnley
16-17 Southampton 3-1 Burnley
15-16 N/A

Match : Arsenal Vs. Man city

Key Stats:

As poor as Arsenal were last season they still managed to score plenty of goals at home. Interestingly they only time they failed to score at home last season was a 3-0 defeat to Man City. They also scored 3 or more goals in 11 matches at home. They averaged 2.84 goals per game at home only bettered by Man City last season
Arsenal were also good defensively recording clean sheets on 9 occasions at home and only conceded on average 1.09 gls per game
However who had the best away defensive last season? That is right- Man city. They recorded 10 clean sheets from their 19 away games and conceded on average 0.68 goals per game.
As an attacking unit City were head and shoulders above everybody else last year and this show in the stats. Man City were ranked first for Goals scored per game away from home last season where they averaged 2.37 gls/g. They only failed to score once away from home last season and this surprisingly was against Crystal Palace.

FDR Charts:

Both teams are high in the attacking potential ranking charts with Man City ranked 5th and Arsenal 7th which brings both teams low down on the defensive potential chart.


Prediction:

I think this could be a high scoring game as both teams have potent attacks, however on the flip side they both have solid defences. This aside I believe this game could be a 2-2 draw or a 3-2 win to either side, more likely Man City.

FPL Prediction:

Although defensive assets are tempting for both sides when they are playing home (arsenal) and away (man city) I think the attacking options of these teams are more likely to get you points for gameweek 1

Head 2 Head Record:

17-18 Arsenal 0-3 Man City
16-17 Arsenal 2-2 Man City
15-16 Arsenal 2-1 Man City

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