Top 3 Sergio Aguero Replacements - Analysis

H17 2017-09-29 Others

Football Fans and especially Fantasy Premier League managers woke up to harrowing news this morning. Sergio Aguero had suffered a car crash this morning, in Holland. He has suffered a broken rib, and could be out for a couple months. Owned by over 1.25 million managers, with over 115,000 managers having bought him this GW, his unfortunate injury has led to a scamper for last minute replacements.

Now, if you don't have either of them, the obvious replacement is Romelu Lukaku or Harry Kane, for obvious reasons. If you can't afford Kane, or already own both, I look at the other 3 fellas in the £10.0m+ bracket in this article - Gabriel Jesus, Alvaro Morata and Alexandre Lacazette. Another alternative is downgrading further to raise funds, but with Jamie Vardy an injury doubt and Roberto Firmino firing blanks, I'd stay in this bracket.

Statistical Comparison -
(All Stats Per 90 Min) Morata Jesus Lacazette
Cost £10.3m £10.4m £10.3m
Goals 1.18 1.11 0.85
Shots 3.93 4.17 2.57
Shots on Target 1.57 1.95 1.5
Shots in the Box 2.95 3.34 2.35
Shots in the 6 yard box 0.59 0.83 0.21
Shot Accuracy 40% 47% 58%
Goal Involvement % 66.67% 19.04% 44.40%
Big Chances Missed 0.59 0.55 0.64
Headed Shots 1.37 0.83 0.42
Assists 0.39 0 0
Passes 20.48 23.12 27.21
Big Chances Created 0.19 0.28 0.21
Pass Completion 69.20% 80% 76.40%
Crosses 1.37 0.28 0.21
Touches 38.4 47.36 42.42
Dribbles 0.59 1.95 1.95
Bonus Points System 32.49 28.97 28.71
Bonus Points 1.57 1.67 0.64
Total Selected By % 24.80% 10.90% 12.80%
Conclusions -

Gabriel Jesus (£10.4m) -
Jesus is the biggest direct beneficiary from Aguero's injury. There was a question mark around Jesus' game time previously, with the Brazilian frequently being hooked off early. But now, he is Man City's only recognized striker, and should play 90 minutes most weeks, except for if Pep Guardiola decides to pull off some unlikely false 9 shenanigans.
Jesus's appeal is clear in his shooting stats. He betters Morata and Lacazette in all of shots, shots on target, shots in the box and shots in the 6 yard box, when taken per 90 minutes. He is no slouch in the chance creation department either, despite having a bit of a fox in the box reputation. The only worry regarding him is the low goal involvement %, but without Sergio Aguero, he will be the focal point of their attack, and this should certainly rise. Being part of the most free-scoring team in the league should aid the cause for him. The Brazilian could now be on penalty duties as well. He has the lowest ownership of the lot too - a boon or a bane depending upon your philosophical bend.

Alvaro Morata (£10.3m) -
Gameweek 6 hat-trick hero Morata's heroics at the Britannia, along with a goal against Atletico, including some delighful link-up play with Eden Hazard, has made him even more firm in our thoughts. With 6 goals so far, he is leading the league's Golden Boot race, tied with Lukaku and the now injured Aguero.
In the shooting stats, he ranks middle of the lot - sandwiched between Jesus and Lacazette. Even though he is the only one of the lot to have assists on the board - 2 of them, in fact - his chance creation stats are the poorest. Perhaps that is because his assists were off the head. His goal involvement % is remarkable - 2/3rds of Chelsea's goals so far have had a direct Morata involvement. But perhaps that could change with Hazard back. He does, though, have the biggest ownership - more than both Jesus and Lacazette combined.

Alexandre Lacazette (£10.3m) -
Lacazette has powered his way back into our thoughts with a brace last Gameweek. With Danny Welbeck's groin injury, the questions about his gametime have been put to rest, at least for now. But the Arsenal man's stats tell another story - he ranks last in all the shooting stats. His chance creation stats are better, but he is still behind Jesus in that regard. His away woes are just the tip of the iceberg - both Lacazette and Arsenal have failed to score away this season. Even the differential tag doesn't befit the Frenchman, with Jesus having a lower ownership.
Next 6 Fixtures -
Jesus - CHE (A), STK (H), BUR (H), WBA (A), ARS (H), LEI (A)
Morata - MCI (H), CRY (A), WAT (H), BOU (A), MUN (H), WBA (A)
Lacazette - BHA (H), WAT (A), EVE (A), SWA (H), MCI (A), TOT (H)
All 3 rank fairly equal here. They all have 2 fixtures against the top 6 sides in the next 6. But crucially, Jesus and Lacazette have two plum fixtures each, while Morata has only one. I would give the edge to Jesus here, owing to the easier away fixtures.

Final Thoughts -
It is extremely close to call between Jesus and Morata, with the crucial stuff almost even. In a vacuum, I would marginally go Jesus. But there are some other factors to consider. If you have a Chelsea midfielder, go Jesus. If you have a City midfielder, Morata's the man. If you want a safe choice, go the Spaniard's way. If you're a manager who loves a differential when he sees one, Jesus. You can't go wtong with either of these, whereas I don't know why you would consider Lacazette.

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