Fantasy Premier League Analysis – Alli vs Eriksen, Abraham vs Mounie vs Vokes

H17 2017-09-08 Others

1. Dele Alli vs Christian Eriksen
Ever since the start of the season, the Spurs midfield duo have been a popular dilemma amongst Fantasy players. Both play for the same team, similar positions, similar points total last year and similar prices. . Alli has bagged two goals in the opening three games, earning 19 points. His Danish counterpart has grabbed 3 assists, en route to 22 points. Spurs' fixtures excellent in the short term, reading EVE (A), SWA (H), WHU (A), HUD (A), BOU (H). Thus, picking up one of these in-form schemers might be a prudent idea.
Cost - Eriksen costs £9.6m, £0.1m more than Alli at £9.5m. Minor point in favor of Alli.

Security of Starts -
Alli is suspended for the first 3 games of Spurs' Champions League campaign. This should help his prospects in the Premier League, with no other distractions early on. It doesn't seem as if Alli even needs a rest, anyway. The Englishman started every European game Spurs played, along with every game before and after them (with one exception of one game he was injured for).
Eriksen, though, could perhaps be prone to the odd rest. Last season, he was benched for a home game against Sunderland after Spurs suffered a defeat to Monaco at the Wembley. Even though he started every other Premier League game before and after a European tie, he was rested for one each of their Champions League and Europa League games (the CL game being before a game against Chelsea, while the EL game was after a game against Liverpool). Mauricio Pochettino had already announced that he will also focus on the Champions League this season, which means Eriksen could get the odd rest before or after an important game

Statistical Comparison -
Goals – Alli 2-0 Eriksen
Shots (Inside Box) – Alli 9(6)-10(5) Eriksen
Shot Accuracy – Alli 60%-64% Eriksen (more failed shots result in a worse BPS score, leading to lesser bonus points).
Assists – Alli 0-2 Eriksen
Chances Created – Alli 6-9 Eriksen
Touches – Alli 170-247 Eriksen
Successful Passes (Per 90 Min) – Alli 89-152 Eriksen
Crosses – Alli 3-29 Eriksen
Bonus – Alli 2-5 Eriksen
Bonus Points System – Alli 62-80 Eriksen
Teams Selected by % – Alli 34.8-21.8% Eriksen
Conclusions - Most stats do point in favor of the Dane. Even though Alli has the advantage of being the goalscorer - and thus earning almost as many points for one goal as Eriksen does for 2 assists, Eriksen makes up for it by being a bonus magnet. Alli is not very good with bonus points either, which means the ex-Ajax man can make up for the points difference between an assist and a goal. Surprisingly, he does take more shots too, though most of them outside the box - leading to a lower conversion. Another point in Eriksen's favor is he also has some direct free-kicks and corners in his locker, and he's quite good at them.
The touches and successful passes show how it's Eriksen who really pulls the strings for Spurs, and is undoubtedly the more influential schemer over Alli. He also has the highest crosses in the league thus far - tied with Robbie Brady. It is the non-statistical areas where he suffers - the risk of the odd rest, and the minor point of being slightly more expensive. Another point to note is last season - Eriksen was more 'explosive' - with more double digit hauls than Alli - but Alli was more consistent, with more Gameweeks he contributed to a goal in.
Verdict -Both have their pros and cons. It's another really close one - but I'm tempted to go with Eriksen, just marginally. For me, his pros outweigh his cons. It's just the looming possibility of the odd rest which is the only con for him, so far. With more 'explosive' potential, he also provides a better captaincy choice for Spurs' plum fixtures, provided you don't own Kane. Perhaps if you want to play it safe, Alli, with his far larger ownership, is the better choice, with Eriksen your man as a relative differential.








2. Tammy Abraham vs Steve Mounie vs Sam Vokes
In the budget strikers section, Swansea's Tammy Abraham, Huddersfield's Steve Mounie and Burnley's Sam Vokes have stood out so far, all coming in at £6.1m or less. They comprise of three of the four top point scorers who cost £7.0m or less. With all three having good upcoming fixtures, they could help you enable an extra heavy hitter in your team.
Cost - Abraham costs £5.5m, a price bracket lower than the other two. Vokes costs £6.0m, while Mounie is the dearest at £6.1m.

Fixtures (next 5) -
Abraham - NEW (H), TOT (A), WAT (H), WHU (A), HUD (H)
Mounie - WHU (A), LEI (H), BUR (A), TOT (H), SWA (A)
Vokes - CRY (H), LIV (A), HUD (H), EVE (A), WHU (H)
Abraham probably ranks best in this regard, with three plum home games to go with an away tie at West Ham. Vokes, with three easy home fixtures, should rank second. Mounie has agreeable fixtures too, but he lags behind the other two in this regard too.
Security of Starts - Should not be a problem for Vokes and Mounie. It's a little trickier for Abraham, but he should probably keep his position despite Wilfried Bony coming in. Swansea have been playing a 3-5-2 formation this season, which means Bony could supplement the Chelsea loanee, and not replace.

Statistical Comparison -
Goals - Abraham 1, Vokes 2, Mounie 2
Shots (Inside Box) - Abraham 7 (5), Vokes 7 (7), Mounie 8 (7)
Shots on Target - Abraham 1, Vokes 2, Mounie 4
Chances Created - Abraham 1, Vokes 2, Mounie 2
Touches - Abraham 70, Vokes 82, Mounie 127
Successful Passes - Abraham 26, Vokes 29, Mounie 39
Crosses - Abraham 3, Vokes 0, Mounie 0
Bonus - Abraham 2, Vokes 3, Mounie 3
Bonus Points System - Abraham 36, Vokes 60, Mounie 47
Teams Selected By % - Abraham 3.4%, Vokes 6.3%, Mounie 4.8%

Conclusions -
It doesn't look like good reading for the budget man Abraham here, who's last in all the important stats, with only a solitary effort on target. Out of the three, Mounie looks the most involved for his team's general buildup, and ranks on top in most stats. However, Vokes is not much behind. It is also worth considering that Vokes faced Chelsea and Spurs away in his first 3 fixtures, while it was Palace away followed by Southampton and Newcastle at home for Mounie. The Welsh striker is also on penalty duties for the Clarets, which greatly enhances his appeal, unlike Mounie. This, along with the fixtures, tips it for me.





Verdict -
For me, Vokes comes out on top here. With 4 attractive home fixtures in the next 7 and Burnley's remarkable home form last season, he could be a nifty pickup if you're looking for a budget striker. Could work out well if you have a 5th mid/5th defender that rotates well with Burnley's tougher fixtures.



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